An early prediction about the next elections

Emre Uslu
Emre Uslu


Date posted: January 24, 2014

EMRE USLU

Turkey’s future will be determined in the next election. Who is going to be the next president? Will Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan continue to lead Turkey as he is leading it now? Could an alternative party emerge from within the Justice and Development Party (AKP)? These are a few of the questions we will find answers to after the upcoming local elections to be held on March 30.

The critical question now is whether or not the AKP will win a large percentage of the votes, as it did in past elections. Opinion polls show different results. Pro-government polls show that the AKP government still maintains its 50 percent voting base, while others show different results. For instance, last December, Metropoll found that the AKP would receive 42 percent of the votes. Recently AKP officials lowered their expectations to 38 percent, which could be related to the fact that the number of AKP votes is likely to decline.

Political observers also think that the AKP will not get as large a portion as it did previously since this party has hurt many segments of society. For instance, 200,000 police officers are extremely unhappy about what the AKP government is doing to them. If one includes their parents and families, the unhappiness among the police could affect as much as 1 million votes.

Teachers aren’t so happy about the AKP government’s policies that affect them, either. It is expected that at least half of the 700,000 teachers will not support the AKP government at this time. If their family and friends are added in, it means that at least 1 million people are not so happy about AKP policies.

Further, from doctors to students, there are many other people from different walks of life that are unhappy about the AKP’s policies.

In addition to all these factors, the AKP government launched a deadly fight against the Gülen movement, which could have a serious impact on AKP votes. It seems that the recent confrontation has made the Gülen movement sure about who they are not going to support in the next election — the AK Party. It is expected that the Gülen movement could negatively affect the AKP’s votes by up to 10 percent.

When we combine all these segments of society, it is very unlikely that the AKP government will exceed its previous success in the local municipal elections when it took 38 percent of all votes. If the AKP government is not able to gain more than 38 percent of the total votes this time, it will directly affect the future of Turkish politics. Erdoğan cannot be the next president, for instance. He will not easily govern the country anymore. Economic stability will not be maintained as it has been over the last 10 years.

In addition, it is likely that the AKP will lose some critical municipalities such as Ankara, after having held it for 20 years. Kırşehir, Erzurum, Hatay, Mardin, even Urfa and İstanbul are included as risky municipalities for the AKP. If Erdoğan loses Ankara or İstanbul it will be a big blow.

Once he loses Ankara or İstanbul, it means his dirty secrets are going to be revealed when the new governor takes the office, which would directly harm his image.

If Erdoğan maintains his success and wins more than 40 percent of the votes, however, he could easily turn Turkey into a semi-dictatorship where he will be the ruler rather than the prime minister.

Source: Todays Zaman , January 24, 2014


Related News

Gift From God: How Erdogan Turned July 15 Into Windfall

According to an official narrative of the government, MIT learned the coup plans earlier in the day and its chief several times discussed it with army chief Akar. One fundamental contradiction was the fact that despite this early warning and intelligence, commanders of navy, ground forces and air forces attended a wedding ceremony that night.

Women’s involvment in Gulen Movement

Suveyda Karakaya of University of Tennessee presents her paper “Women in the Hizmet Movement: Traditionalists or Modernists?” which examines the women’s involvement and attitudes towards issues surrounding their position in the movement, at the international conference “The Gulen Movement: Paradigms, Projects, and Aspirations.” The international conference took place on November 11-13, 2010 at International House […]

Compensation case filed against Erdoğan for targeting Gülen-inspired schools

Fetih Educational Operations (Fetih Eğitim İşletmeleri), which run schools affiliated with the faith-based Gülen movement, has filed a compensation case against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for targeting these schools since the eruption of a major corruption scandal in December 2013.

‘I see the Hizmet movement as the best expression of Islam’

The Prophet Muhammad said that, it is in the Quran, it says that, we are created in different societies, cultures and backgrounds as a challenge to come together and understand each other and to bring about peace.

ESİDEF: Targets doubled despite intimidation

Federation of the Aegean and Mediterranean Industrialists and Businesspeople (ESİDEF) President Mustafa Çelik said anti-democratic rhetoric and intimidating speeches against the business world in Turkey have motivated them to double their targets.

Jailed woman in hospital for delivery to be returned to jail with new-born

Ayse Ates who has been in the jail for 4 months is in the hospital but will be returned to the jail after giving birth, reports Set Them Free, a website devoted to women, children and babies in the jails in Turkey.

Latest News

Fethullah Gulen – man of education, peace and dialogue – passes away

Fethullah Gülen’s Condolence Message for South African Human Rights Defender Archbishop Desmond Tutu

Hizmet Movement Declares Core Values with Unified Voice

Ankara systematically tortures supporters of Gülen movement, Kurds, Turkey Tribunal rapporteurs say

Erdogan possessed by Pharaoh, Herod, Hitler spirits?

Devious Use of International Organizations to Persecute Dissidents Abroad: The Erdogan Case

A “Controlled Coup”: Erdogan’s Contribution to the Autocrats’ Playbook

Why is Turkey’s Erdogan persecuting the Gulen movement?

Purge-victim man sent back to prison over Gulen links despite stage 4 cancer diagnosis

In Case You Missed It

Arab world should embrace the Gülen model

Gülen movement offers real alternative to clashes and conflict in society

Lao deputy education minister grateful to Turkish schools

White House denies remarks about Gülen attributed to Obama

The Hizmet movement, politics and the AKP

Turkey’s Reichstag Fire

Why didn’t Chuck Hagel visit Turkey?

Copyright 2025 Hizmet News