Expert: I fear that Turkey is headed to a prolonged period of civil conflict if not civil war


Date posted: March 29, 2017

ANF: You closely follow the developments in the Middle East in general and Turkey in particular. As you know, there will be a referendum in Turkey on April 16. What sort of a brink is Turkey nearing?

Michael Rubin: Turkey is dangerously polarized. We know from Turkish political history that such polarization often leads to violence. The situation surrounding the referendum is different, however. Dictatorial powers for Recep Tayyip Erdogan will allow him to transform Turkey completely. The fact that so many opposed to Erdogan are in prison or fear that Erdogan will use the mechanisms of state to punish their family or ruin them financially means that they will never accept the outcome of referendum approval, causing tension to remain and worsen. In short, I fear that Turkey is headed to a prolonged period of civil conflict if not civil war.


Erdogan made Abdullah Ocalan the voice of Turkey’s Kurds when he entered into negotiations with a man whom Turkish authorities had, for a decade, decreed irrelevant. There can now be no solution without Ocalan and the PKK. Erdogan has courted the Kurds whenever he needed their votes but then turned his back on them.


ANF: A recent Twitter post of yours reads “Could it be that Erdoğan thinks we do not know where he hides the money he has stolen?” Where do you think he hides that money?

Michael Rubin: There’s a number of bank accounts in Europe and Russia belonging to Erdogan and his family. But, this question is one of the main reasons why Erdogan is so upset that Reza Zarrab is in the United States and talking to investigators.

ANF: While you have this information, does, let’s say, the US administration or the EU not know about these cases?

Michael Rubin: Erdogan’s corruption is public record. Presumably, the intelligence services of these countries know where he keeps the cash. Vladimir Putin certainly does. The reason why Erdogan is so upset at the Zarrab case is that such information in the hands of the judiciary will become public record at trial.


He has become a joke, albeit a dangerous one. He has become Muammar Qadhafi. Turkey is dangerously polarized. We know from Turkish political history that such polarization often leads to violence. I fear that Turkey is headed to a prolonged period of civil conflict if not civil war.


ANF: How is Erdoğan viewed by the powers that hold the fate of the world?

Michael Rubin: He has become a joke, albeit a dangerous one. He has become Muammar Qadhafi.

ANF: There seems low possibility of a ‘Yes’ outcome from the referendum of 16 April. If this turns out to be the result, will it mean that Erdoğan has achieved his goal and his ruling is legitimate?

Michael Rubin: The polls may suggest Erdogan will fall short, but this assumes Erdogan will not cheat. Democracy is already dead in Turkey, sacrificed upon the altar of Erdogan’s ego.

Michael Rubin: Even if ‘No’ triumphs, Erdogan might simply go back to elections and try to impose the constitution with a supermajority.

ANF: What influence do you think the referendum result will have on the problems in Turkey and Turkey’s relations with the world?

Michael Rubin: Turkish nationalism and Erdogan’s religious rhetoric are no substitute for reality. Neither can deliver a successful economy or powerful Turkey. International banks have already downgraded Turkey’s economy to junk status. When the Qatari money dries up, Turkey will have a reckoning.

ANF: How do you view Turkey’s current policy regarding the Kurdish question, that is based on war and violence?

Michael Rubin: Erdogan made Abdullah Ocalan the voice of Turkey’s Kurds when he entered into negotiations with a man whom Turkish authorities had, for a decade, decreed irrelevant. There can now be no solution without Ocalan and the PKK. Erdogan has courted the Kurds whenever he needed their votes but then turned his back on them. Kurds gave Erdogan the benefit of the doubt once or twice but now recognize the Turkish leader’s cynicism.

ANF: What is your perspective on the Kurdish question for the short and medium term in light of the developments in the region?

Michael Rubin: Erdogan’s policies will lead to the permanent division of Turkey. Whether that’s a division of internal borders or a partition of the country remains to be seen.

ANF: The AKP media treats your comments on Turkey as comments of a US team, viewing these ideas and evaluations as not belonging to Rubin alone. What do you have to say on this matter?

I’m not alone in my thoughts and analysis but I am just an individual analyst.


WHO IS MICHAEL RUBIN?

Michael Rubin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute; senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School’s Center for Civil-Military Relations; and a senior editor of the Middle East Quarterly. Between 2002 and 2004, Rubin worked as a staff advisor for Iran and Iraq in OSD/ISA/NESA at the Pentagon, in which capacity he was seconded to Iraq.

He has previously worked as a lecturer in history at Yale University, Hebrew University in Jerusalem, and at three different universities in northern Iraq. Rubin currently provides academic instruction on regional issues for senior U.S. Army and Marine officers deploying to Iraq and Afghanistan

He has articles on Turkey, Iran and Iraq published by Washington Post,The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The New Republic, National Review and The Weekly Standard.

Source: Ajansa Nûçeyan a Firatê , March 29, 2017


Related News

Will Turkish corruption scandal lead to return of military to politics?

The tactics the government has developed to defend itself against the graft investigations and their implications have once again brought the role of the military, military tutelage and potential coup attempts back onto Turkey’s agenda.

Turkey arrests Fethullah Gulen’s barber from 26 years ago

At least 16 people have been detained in the western province of Izmir, including a 50-year-old hairdresser, identified as İ.D., who used to give haircut to Fethullah Gülen during 1990s.

Gülen’s lawyer files libel suit against Interior Minister Ala

Albayrak stated in the petition that unrealistic allegations and imputations, intended to defame his client Gülen, were made by Ala during his speech in Erzurum. Albayrak stated: “The expressions used by Ala cannot be considered within the scope of freedom of expression as they clearly violate the personal rights of Gülen.”

EU report expresses concern about purge against Gülen movement

The progress report on Turkey that was issued on Wednesday by the European Commission expressed concern over the Turkish government’s purge against Gülen movement members, saying “any allegation of wrongdoing needs to be examined with due process, transparent procedures, and the right of every individual to a fair trial or equitable administrative process should be safeguarded.”

Turkey’s Ankara Mayor Gökçek Hints ‘Genocide’ For Followers Of Gülen Movement

Melih Gökçek, the mayor of Turkey’s capital city Ankara, has hinted a kind of “genocide” for alleged members of faith-based Gülen movement in an interview. He said that “Completely annihilating Gülen movement in Turkey will take our 10 year. In order to finish them completely we need to transform whole generation.

Fethullah Gulen Condemns the Assassination of Russian Ambassador to Turkey

Fethullah Gulen Condemns the Assassination of Russian Ambassador to Turkey Andrey Karlov.

Latest News

Fethullah Gülen’s Condolence Message for South African Human Rights Defender Archbishop Desmond Tutu

Hizmet Movement Declares Core Values with Unified Voice

Ankara systematically tortures supporters of Gülen movement, Kurds, Turkey Tribunal rapporteurs say

Erdogan possessed by Pharaoh, Herod, Hitler spirits?

Devious Use of International Organizations to Persecute Dissidents Abroad: The Erdogan Case

A “Controlled Coup”: Erdogan’s Contribution to the Autocrats’ Playbook

Why is Turkey’s Erdogan persecuting the Gulen movement?

Purge-victim man sent back to prison over Gulen links despite stage 4 cancer diagnosis

University refuses admission to woman jailed over Gülen links

In Case You Missed It

Kimse Yok Mu supports the orphan in Chad

Pregnant woman kept in prison for 4 months over Gülen links despite regulations

Turkish asylum claims in Greece rise 40-fold in three years

An Ideal, Dynamic, Democratic Education

Fethullah Gulen: From Izmir to the Global Hizmet Movement

Is the March 30 referendum in danger?

An Experience of Co-Existence: Panel on the Example of Istanbul and Şanlıurfa

Copyright 2024 Hizmet News