Political predictions for 2014

Emre Uslu
Emre Uslu

Date posted: January 1, 2014


I should warn you that 2014 will not be better than 2013. All economic and political signs indicate this. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is getting lonelier and this makes him more ill-tempered. Groups that benefit from Erdoğan have started to act more concerned. They are now feeling the heat from the possibility of being held accountable for their acts or fraud.

They are making new moves to cover up their mistakes. But every new step they make creates another mistake. They have been living in a spiral of mistakes for the last two years.

The bombs that exploded in Uludere and Reyhanlı showed us how terrorist organizations have penetrated deep into the state apparatus. The police seized weapons used in assassination which were being produced under state supervision in Konya. The seizure of these weapons was personally confirmed by Erdoğan, too.

Worse still, it has come out that Yasin al-Qadi, a Saudi Arabian businessman who is on the US Treasury Department’s “Specially Designated Global Terrorist” list, received senior recognition in Turkey. Photos showing al-Qadi side-by-side with the prime minister’s son, Bilal Erdoğan, have been published.

This jeopardizes Turkey’s position in the international arena. To clarify the situation for Turks, let me give an example. Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Murat Karayılan is on the terrorist organizations list prepared by the US. This is why his financial assets are frozen in the US.

Now suppose that US President Barack Obama’s guards greet Karayılan at the airport and host him as a senior guest in the US. He even starts to do business with Obama. What would be Turkey’s reaction?

The US will now react similarly to the Erdoğan and al-Qadi connection. Erdoğan had previously given assurances about the credibility of al-Qadi. But the fact that al-Qadi came to Turkey many times, received high-level treatment from Erdoğan and did business with Erdoğan’s relatives at a time when his entry was prohibited by Cabinet decision should have other implications.

We will see these implications in 2014. I hope the US does not penalize Turkey for what the Erdoğan family does.

In 2014, the international conjuncture will not be favorable to Erdoğan. We are talking about an Erdoğan who lost in Egypt and whose credibility with the West has waned. It is very hard for Erdoğan to reaffirm himself as a strong and democratic leader.

The Hakan Fidan-led National Intelligence Organization (MİT) has led the Erdoğan administration into a quagmire in Syria. It brought weapons from Libya and mujahedeen from Chechnya as well as al-Qaeda warriors from the Arab world and sent them to Syria. By doing so, Erdoğan confronted both Russia and the US. This unique “success” is enough to tell us that 2014 will not be an easy year for Erdoğan.

There are two big risk areas for Erdoğan. One of them is the total war he declared against the Gülen movement for no apparent reason. Erdoğan can expect no easy victory from this war. Moreover, a leader whose close circle is accused of corruption cannot wage such a war.

The Gülen community is engaged in a life-or-death fight while Erdoğan conducts a defensive war. He tries to defend his power, money, strength and wealth.

The larger the “things” you try to defend, the more difficult your defensive war. There are so many “things” Erdoğan has to protect that it is virtually impossible for him to win this war.

The second major issue for Erdoğan is his stance regarding the PKK and the Kurdish issue.

The Kurdish issue will be one of the decisive matters in 2014. Apparently, Erdoğan and PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan have made a deal to maintain a cease-fire. But Erdoğan is weakening, and it won’t be easy for him to keep the promises he has made to the PKK in Oslo. For instance, will he be able to release Öcalan from prison? Will the PKK return to the region bearing arms? Will the flailing Erdoğan convince the public to accept this?

Elections will prove more challenging for Erdoğan as he will enter them with these being the main items on the agenda. Even before the corruption claims were exposed, Erdoğan’s electoral support had dropped to 44 percent in November. With the graft investigation and the row with the Gülen movement, estimates show his vote has fallen to below 40 percent. It appears Erdoğan will hardly secure the 38 percent vote he had secured in 2009. This will pose an additional challenge to Erdoğan in 2014.

The country is teeming with rumors about corruption and bribery. Erdoğan must silence these rumors in 2014. But this will not be easy. I think the easiest solution for Erdoğan will be to flee to the presidential palace. But, given the current state of affairs, this won’t be as easy as it may sound.

Source: Today's Zaman , January 1, 2014

Related News

Turkey Deports Journalist for Criticizing Government on Twitter

The editor in chief of Today’s Zaman, Bulent Kenes, said that Mr. Zeynalov’s deportation was an attempt to intimidate the foreign news media after Mr. Erdogan’s government had moved to suppress critical reporting in the local media. “I consider his deportation as a lesson the government tries to teach at micro level,” Mr. Kenes said. “It is intimidation of everyone doing international journalism.”

Ankara systematically tortures supporters of Gülen movement, Kurds, Turkey Tribunal rapporteurs say

The Turkey Tribunal, a civil society-led, symbolic international tribunal established to adjudicate recent human rights violations in Turkey, started proceedings in Geneva on Monday where rapporteurs pointed to the use of systematic torture by the government against alleged members of the faith-based Gülen movement and Kurds.

17,000 women, 515 babies in Turkish prisons: SCF report

Thousands of women in Turkey, many with small children, have been jailed in an unprecedented crackdown and subjected to torture and ill-treatment in detention centers and prisons as part of the government’s systematic campaign of intimidation and persecution of critics and opponents, a new report has revealed.

Don’t lose the plot

Turkey’s attempted coup shocked an already tense society. At least 240 people were killed, and the country narrowly averted a disastrous military takeover. The plot was led in part by followers of the Gulen movement, a secretive Muslim sect that runs a global network of schools, charities and businesses and has infiltrated the Turkish state. It is only natural that Turks should be determined to identify and punish the conspirators.

Turkish minister: Gulenists are more dangerous than ISIL because they’re well-educated

Berat Albayrak, Turkish energy minister and son-in-law of President Tayyip Erdoğan, has said at a conference that people affiliated with the Gülen movement are more dangerous than Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) militants because they’re well educated and have “higher IQs” than his own.

Gülen’s lawyer: Pro-gov’t columnist’s claims on religious directorate ‘disgusting scenario’

A lawyer representing Turkish Islamic scholar Fethullah Gülen has strongly denied allegations by a pro-government columnist who argued that the Gülen movement is behind recent “attacks” on the Religious Affairs Directorate, saying the baseless claims are a part of a “disgusting scenario to divide the nation.”

Latest News

Fethullah Gülen’s Condolence Message for South African Human Rights Defender Archbishop Desmond Tutu

Hizmet Movement Declares Core Values with Unified Voice

Ankara systematically tortures supporters of Gülen movement, Kurds, Turkey Tribunal rapporteurs say

Erdogan possessed by Pharaoh, Herod, Hitler spirits?

Devious Use of International Organizations to Persecute Dissidents Abroad: The Erdogan Case

A “Controlled Coup”: Erdogan’s Contribution to the Autocrats’ Playbook

Why is Turkey’s Erdogan persecuting the Gulen movement?

Purge-victim man sent back to prison over Gulen links despite stage 4 cancer diagnosis

University refuses admission to woman jailed over Gülen links

In Case You Missed It

Intellectuals from West, East agree Gülen movement works for a better world

Turkey arrests Fethullah Gulen’s barber from 26 years ago

Gulen named author of the month in Casablanca

Abant participants: Turkey needs EU support to improve its democracy

Kimse Yok Mu lends helping hand to 3,000 orphans in 4 countries

State Department: US concerned by rhetoric from Turkey on Russian envoy killing

Headlines or weapons of mass destruction?

Copyright 2023 Hizmet News